Hiatus

After careful review of my blog readership, I have decided that I obviously do not know how to sell this to a wider audience.  I have enjoyed this twice-monthly exercise as I have learned so much in researching some of the stories I have covered.  This alone was worth the time I spent.  I am not shutting this down per se; rather I am going to try to find ways to increase my audience so that I can make this worthwhile to more people.

If anyone has suggestions as to how to do this I would be happy to learn.  To anyone I have touched with any story, this to me is the ultimate reward.

Thanks again,

Bob

It's not the heat, it's the....

When I was in the army stationed at Ft. Sill, Oklahoma, the summer I was there was brutally hot.  My drill sergeant always told us, "it's not the heat that gets you, it's the humility".  Now I am sure that he had some hidden meaning in this but we always knew that it really WAS the heat that got us.

As I write this blog sitting in my air-conditioned office in Tulsa, the temperature outside is 97 degrees.  This is pretty hot no matter where you live but the difficult part is that it is 10:15 AM.  The forecast highs are: 111, 109, 109, 109, 108, and 106.  Even for Oklahoma in the heart of the summer, these are about 15 degrees above normal.  My lawn is the color of old hay as I’ve given up trying to keep it green.  My air conditioning bill each month is close to what I paid for a used car in my youth.  My dogs refuse to go outdoors except under the most urgent of bodily needs because their water is too hot to drink (though the squirrels in the yard brave it).  My once-vibrant trees resemble weeping willows from the lack of rain.  I see the birds in our shade trees panting! 

So what the heck is going on?  My promise at the outset of this blog series was that it would not be a political disquisition.  It seems that our country is particularly polarized right now and although I am absolutely certain that my viewpoints are all 100% accurate and everyone who disagrees with me is absolutely wrong, my promise not to be political keeps me alive and safe!   

I live in the reddest state in the country (and I am not talking about sunburn either).  As such, there is a general tendency to disagree with things green.  One of our United States Senators, James Inhofe, has written a book, “The Greatest Hoax: How the Global Warming Conspiracy Threatens Your Future”.  Among relevant scientific evidence he offers this:  

 “…Genesis 8:22 that I use in there is that ‘as long as the earth remains there will be seed time and harvest, cold and heat, winter and summer, day and night,’ my point is, God’s still up there. The arrogance of people to think that we, human beings, would be able to change what He is doing in the climate is to me outrageous”.  

Now, I don’t intend to criticize Senator Inhofe for his religious views.  I can say that his quotation from Genesis has nothing to do with climate change.  Some things are a matter of faith, others an issue for science.  We human beings ARE able to change the climate and most everything else we get our hands on and not everyone is beholden to God for permission to do so. 

No doubt you see where my heart lies.  Spoiler alert: I am NOT a climatologist.  I am not a scientist. This means I have to take a stand based on what I think the best evidence shows.  Not everyone believes in climate change, not even climatologists.  My philosophy when these types of issues come along is to go with the preponderance of the evidence.  From what I’ve seen, some 97% of climatologists feel that climate change is real and that’s good enough for me.  I think there are signs that even diehard climate change deniers are coming around.  There was an interesting article by a recent convert to this view and I include it here for your pleasure.

Conversion of a climate change skeptic


Given the strong probability that climate change/global warming is real, what do we do about it?  Hey, don’t ask me.  I already told you I’m not a scientist!

My saying for this week’s blog has to do with the weather (surprise!).


"It is best to read the weather forecast before praying for rain”. ~Mark Twain, American Humorist and author (1835-1910)

Splendor in Lake Tahoe

As a slight departure from information regarding energy conservation let me offer this. I had the pleasant experience during the last week of June to spend it in Inverness Village, NV, flush on the banks of Lake Tahoe.  Located at 6500 feet elevation, the first few days of my visit were spent trying to find warm enough clothes to keep from freezing my assets off!  For those of you who haven’t been there, this is a most beautiful area of the country.  The water in the lake is as blue as any I have ever seen (except for some Tidy Bowl porcelain) and I have included a picture below to give you an idea of the splendor.   

As a member of the American Boiler Manufacturers Association (ABMA) I have the privilege twice each year of attending their general meetings along with my wife Rosalie.  Each of these conferences is hosted at some of the finest hotels around in the most wonderful of locations suitable for the season.  Though the conference lasted only four days, Rosalie and I had planned to spend an extra few days in Reno.  Unfortunately my wife tripped over a piece of luggage and broke her arm so I learned the finer points of nursing, none of which I can say was particularly pleasing to me.  In any case, she is healing nicely but will be in a sling for the next several weeks.   

So what did I learn there that might be interesting to my extensive (OK, small) audience?  Regarding the November election, I heard one of the presenters say that the general election was Romney’s to lose.  For those Obama supporters in my group, do not despair as things are so tight and only the swing states really matter.  One attribute to living in Oklahoma is that it is so Republican that neither party spends money on campaigning here.  Contrast that to Nevada that is in play where ads ran all the time.  Of course as November draws closer, the local pols will be placing ads but that’s a bit away. 

On the economic front, sorry to say that’s a different kettle of fish.  One of the speakers – and remember he was addressing an audience consisting of business leaders in boilers and associated equipment who have been enjoying a couple of years of really good sales after three difficult years – spoke gloom and doom.  Although Romney and Obama will throw spears and barbs at each other, the blame for our woes extends far beyond that.  Two words stand out when fault is assigned: Europe and China.  Europe’s economy is going to be difficult for a long time and is a big trading partner of the US.  China, according to the presenter, sticks us with two problems: one is a slowing economy; the other is its unfair trade practices that lead to large trade surpluses against the US.  This, in turn, results in an economy that struggles.   

And besides all this "great" news, here in Tulsa, it’s HOT. 

As I am now a caregiver for my ailing wife I found how impatient (no pun there, really) I am and how wonderful real nurses are.  Here are some words for the occasion. 

"It is not how much you do, but how much LOVE you put in the doing."
Mother Teresa (1910-1997)

Lake Tahoe June 2012

Boiler MACT update

In recent news, Republican Senator James Inhofe (from Oklahoma, wouldn’t you know it) is leading a charge against the EPA’s Boiler MACT rule.  As some may remember from previous blogs of mine, the American Boiler Manufactures Association (which includes E-Tech) has supported this rule for many years.  Many ABMA members (including me) wrote letters to our Congressman.  Yesterday I received a reply from Senator Tom Coburn, Oklahoma’s other US Senator in response to a letter I sent on February 8.  The essence of my letter was to say that ten years was enough time to evaluate the proposal; that our industry was entirely capable of implementing the rules with current technologies and at low cost; that the manufacturing base in Tulsa was particularly geared towards this particular industry and our opportunities due to passage of the bill would be great for business.  At that time, the Republicans were trying to attach this bill to the Payroll Tax Holiday Extension, something I found particularly odious.  Left unsaid, but certainly implied, was the EPA Boiler MACT rule was designed around making our products less polluting and consequently better for the collective health of the country. 

As Senator Coburn was the only Senator (none of Oklahoma’s Congressmen replied, nor did Senator Inhofe) to answer my letter, I can easily gloss over the four month delay in getting back to me.  Furthermore, it is not surprising that I heard tired old bromides such as these: 

• “.. the EPA has proposed a litany of cumbersome federal mandates without assessing if they achieve both economic and environmental progress.” 
• “..by imposing burdensome regulations on states, the EPA will sacrifice effectiveness while increasing costs..”
• “Instead of further taxing and regulating opportunity the EPA should…”

Well as John Steward says, I must call “bullshit” on this.

The upshot ofthe nonsense, including Senator Inhofe’s obstructive blockade, is a veto promise from the White House.  See here for the story on that. White House threatens veto

Further to this, a recent article written by Sue Tierny, a former USDOE official, lends learned credence to proceeding, noting the Republican theatrics lunacy.  Read here. Tierny article

Although, this blog will not be posted until June 30, it is being written on June 20, the first day of summer.  So my “wise” words today are:

“Then followed that beautiful season...Summer....

Filled was the air with a dreamy and magical light; and the landscape

Lay as if new created in all the freshness of childhood.”

Henry Wadsworth Longfellow (1807-1882)

 

White Paper Delirium

On June 12, I had one of those phone calls that warm the heart – someone had read our white paper on condensing economizers and had a follow-up question!  Now you might ask, “Bob how cold is your heart that it takes so little to warm it”?  This is a sensible question but easily answered as my joy comes from the fact that someone has read this document.  (All white papers are available on the E-Tech web site here: http://www.e-techinc.com/Resources_e-tech_heat_recovery_systems-white_papers.aspx)   

The question was, how can I determine that I have enough of a heat sink to make a condensing economizer feasible.  For those who know me, I never can answer a question simply even though the asker put it to me in such a condensed version.  The easy answer is that if you have approximately 60% or more of makeup, there’s enough heat recoverable to justify a condensing economizer.  The longer answer – and this is where I come in – is there are other variables: the colder the makeup water, the lower the percentage needed; smaller boilers (600 HP or less) usually are poor candidates for secondary heat recovery; there may be other sources of cold water – say from a process stream – that make the condensing unit’s installation more viable. 

The easiest way to come up with the answer is to ask us.  If a condensing system isn’t in the cards, perhaps a ThermoCharger offers an alternative solution.  And, of course, there’s a white paper on that as well.  Either way, E-Tech will be able to recommend the best solution to your heat recovery needs. 

After getting off the phone with the caller, I had another call later that afternoon, this one having the opposite effect.  The caller, a long-term friend and representative of E-Tech said that it was difficult selling energy recovery equipment due to the low price of natural gas (NG).  His question to me was “what do you see for NG pricing down the road”?  As you might imagine, E-Tech’s business, along with many representatives and customers, depends upon a decent ROI for its equipment.  With NG prices hovering a bit over $3.00 per million Btu, paybacks have tripled over the past few years.  My answer to Tim, couched in my usual pragmatism, was not heartening.  Most of the articles I’ve read recently have run out of adjectives to describe the amount of NG available in the country.  Words such as “colossal”, “stupendous” and “enormous” don’t seem to announce adquately the size of our reserves. 

There are, however, a couple of thin reeds to hang our hopes on.  First, there are environmental issues to be considered.  Does fracking cause earthquakes (don’t laugh)?  Fracking requires huge amounts of water, water that as of now cannot be recycled to use on crops.  Finally, what is the environmental impact of this water? 

Second, and I wrote about this in my blog in mid-April, many areas in the world (Japan for instance) pay upwards of $15 for liquefied natural gas (LNG).  There have been thoughts about exporting LNG to areas around the globe, something that sounds good on the surface but still have the ecological considerations mentioned above.   

My conclusion?  Low gas prices for the next several years. 

Finally, I am aware that my blog is not on the top one million viewed list.  This isn’t hurtful to me because I’m sure there are better ways to advertise the blog than whatever I’ve been able to do.  So for those of you who do read it, thank you.  Perhaps there is something helpful in here, a morsel that approaches wisdom.

“Wisdom is not a product of schooling but of the lifelong attempt to acquire it”.  Albert Einstein (1879-1955).

In Honor of Heroes

As a Vietnam veteran, I recall my return home to the US after my service overseas.  For those of you old enough to remember, this was a very unpopular war.  Soldiers coming home, all with the same problems that our fighting men have now with PTSD (not a term then) and other issues, were treated unceremoniously at the very best and with scorn at the worst.  I say this not as a “poor me” moment since this was 40 years ago and is now a very distant memory, but rather as a thank you to all the troops who have been fighting for this country over the past decades.  Memorial Day (or as I called it when I was young, Decoration Day) has just passed and I see the patriotism in this country so much more noticeable in 2012.   

For those of you interested, John Huston (with his father, Walter narrating), directed a film, “Let There be Light”, after WWII that documented the travails of returning soldiers.  The army did not want it shown so it sat gathering dust until a couple of years ago when it was brought out again.  An hour long, it is well worth viewing.  Here is a link to the site: Let There be Light 

I have told my loyal reader(s) (thanks Mom) that I have been traveling a great deal for the past several months.  June offers no respite, alas.  Because of this, I beg your indulgence in granting me an extra couple of weeks before my next posting (late June). 

There is much going on in the world of energy.  Natural gas prices continue to be low (with little change in sight), followed by a decline in oil prices (gas prices in Tulsa as of today are some of the lowest in the country at $3.14/gallon while just a few months ago hovered above $3.69/gallon.  In California earlier this month, I paid $4.39/gallon).  Coal continues to be the bad boy of energy with rather dim outlooks. 

There’s a recent article of interest that I read in the USA Today regarding what was once considered an old shibboleth, “energy independence”.  So what is the real story today?  Is it a dream or a distinct possibility? Energy Independence? 

Once upon a time, E-Tech had considered working with companies involved in carbon capture as there were energy savings opportunities possible.  Fortunately, as reported in a New York Times article, I didn’t put this into my sales forecast! Carbon Capture Disappointment

Finally, and somewhat analogous to the previous article, coal is finding major difficulties, even in the middle of coal country.  Read this detailed report from the NY Times. Coal in trouble?

And, finishing where I left off, here’s a wonderful saying regarding our marvelous fighting men and women.  

“And they who for their country die shall fill an honored grave, for glory lights the soldier's tomb, and beauty weeps the brave.  Joseph Rodman Drake” (1795-1820)

So, as I mentioned in my last blog (a long time ago, it seems), I have been on the road quite a bit including a trip to the Monterrey Peninsula to play in the Nationwide Boiler Charity Golf Tournament.  The picture of me standing on the 18th tee box doesn't quite depict the big smile on my face.  For those of you who play golf, this is a bucket list item for sure.

So what's new in the world that's interesting?  Aside from the politics, I mean.

Several of my blogs of late have discussed natural gas in particular and energy resources in the US in general.  We have gone from a country that was importing a great amount of our oil from overseas to one that seems to be at the edge of a boom.  And in natural gas - well don't get me started.  There are many stories regarding the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).  For me it's hard to envision too much criticism of this group as it has, at its heart, our environment and health as its main interest.  But there are those who have suggested doing away with it (you know who you are you dastardly cads!).  But the EPA has taken an interesting view on a difficult issue - fracking.  Is it harmless, dangerous or somewhere in-between.  One would expect the EPA to be rather circumspect on this problem but, as reported by one of my favorite columnists, Ezra Klein, they are taking a longer view.  See the article if you'd like to know more. Ezra Klein article

Another article of particular interest to me, although still on a natural gas theme LNG), is the following one from Politico.  In it is discussed the Cheniere Energy Partners’ Sabine Pass project.  What's so fascinating about this story is that the plant in question was originally conceived as an operation to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) but now is being converted to export it.  How's that for a turn of events?  The question raised in this story is whether or not we should do it?  Take a look and see for yourself. Sabine Pass Terminal

I hope this has proved interesting to you and look forward to writing more next month.

In closing, here's a California theme (how can I not after spending last week in that beautiful state). 

"Helsinki may not be as cold as you make it out to be, but California is still a lot nicer. I don't remember the last time I couldn't walk around in shorts all day." - Linus Torvalds (born 1969)

So what's the big deal with natural gas?

So what’s so good about low gas prices?

The most recent prices I have for natural gas are under $2.00 and the spot price for NG, bought without a long-term contract traded at $1.87.  By the time you read this, it could be even lower!  So I ask the question, is this good or is it bad?  But before I answer it, let me take you on a little journey into this world with some facts and figures.

Prices and Costs

·         Current U.S. futures price: $1.98/1,000 cu. Ft.

·         All-time low: $1.32 (Jan. 1995)

·         All-time high: $15.38 (Dec. 2005)

·         10-year average: $5.96

·         Current price in Asia: $15.90

·         Current price in Europe: $9.37

Producers

·         Top Producers of NG in U.S.: ExxonMobil, Chesapeake Energy, Anadarko Petroleum, Devon Energy, Encana.

·         Top five producing states: Texas, Alaska, Louisiana, Wyoming, and Oklahoma (yeah for the home team).

·         Top five producing countries: U.S. Russia, Iran, Algeria, Canada

How Natural gas is used in the U.S.

·         34% is used for generating electricity

·         30% is used by industry to heat boilers or make chemicals, fertilizers, etc.

·         21% is used to heat homes, cook, dry clothes and heat water

·         14% is used to heat buildings, restaurants and shops

·         0.1% is used to power trucks, cars, buses and other vehicles.

How it might be used to benefit from US growing supply

·         Expand the production of plastics, fertilizers, etc., that use NG as a feedstock

·         Liquefy it for export to Asia and Europe where prices are far higher

·         Build more NG fueling stations

·         Turn it into diesel or ethanol.

Sources: Oil Price Information Service, Platts, Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas Supply Administration, World Publishing Company

So back to the question.  Is this good news or bad?

For many in our industry, it is simply awful.  At E-Tech we sell energy recovery.  Just a few years ago when natural gas soared to $15.38, paybacks on our equipment were measured in mere months.  Installed!  But those halcyon days have passed.  In a return on investment calculation, the energy effect is linear so that if NG is priced at $2.00, it takes seven to eight times as long for an investment to pay for itself as it does at $12.00.  So it’s bad, right? Ouch and yikes!

No, it’s good tidings.  Just ask those in the ethanol business.  Their issue of course is that the primary source of stock is corn.  With corn prices sitting above $6.00 bushel, this is becoming an expensive business, correct?  Well, not exactly.  Low NG prices allow those producing ethanol to continue moving forward profitably which is good, right? Ooh and aah!

Well no, it’s bad news.  Check out the natural gas producers who have based their exploration on predicted NG pricing that not so long ago was several times higher than it is today.  There’s so much gas being produced that we are running out of places to store it thereby exacerbating the price issue further.  This is bad, right?

Not really, it’s good.  Just look at places like Japan that pay about $16 for LNG (liquefied natural gas) and other countries paying similarly high prices.  Exporters in the US are looking at shipping LNG at high margins, something we all love.  Consider also Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) that is becoming more and more available in our country at a price of about $1.15 per gge (gasoline gallon equivalent).  This will likely lead to higher natural gas prices. Which is good, right?

Well I could go on and on here.  The point I’m really making is that we are most fortunate in this country to have resources such as this that offer wonderful opportunities including reduced dependence on unstable energy sources around the world while at the same time lowering harmful emissions.

To end, I could say “the grass is always greener…” but, this is better.

“Start where you are. Distant fields always look greener, but opportunity lies right where you are. Take advantage of every opportunity of service.” ~ Robert Collier, American Motivational Speaker (1885-1950).

PS – Once again I beg your indulgence.  Because of upcoming travel schedules, the next edition of this blog will be posted in mid-May.

The Last Word on Boiler MACT?

The never-ending saga of the Boiler MACT issue may finally be coming to an end – or, if you prefer, a new beginning.  Last week the Senate voted on amendments (30 of them!) to the Highway Bill (S. 1813).  The 30 amendments had been reduced from a higher number based on the leaders of both parties agreeing to limit eliminate those issues that had nothing to do with transportation.  Imagine that!

By a vote of 52-46 – with 60 votes needed for passage – the EPA Regulatory Relief Act (AKA the Collins Amendment to the Highway Bill of 2012) was defeated in the US Senate.  With this defeat, the current EPA rulemaking on the ICI-BMACT will finally be issued this spring.

As any of you who have read this blog know, E-Tech, as a part of the ABMA, worked against the EPA Regulatory Relief Act in its varied incarnations be it as a stand-alone bill (HR 2250 & S-1392), an amendment to the Payroll Tax Holiday and now again with the Highway Bill.

However, the reality of this moment is the issue may yet appear again in another guise prior to the finalization of the rules by the USEPA at some time in the future.  All that would yield is to step back a year or so in order to lead back to the exact point where we are today.  That this is a waste of time for everyone involved is an obvious conclusion but that is not soon to stop Congress.

Keep in touch for further developments.

To end, here are two thoughts on politics.

"The Liberals are the flying saucers of politics. No one can make head nor tail of them and they never are seen twice in the same place." ~ John G. Diefenbaker, Canadian Prime Minister (1895 - 1979)

"Conservatives are not necessarily stupid, but most stupid people are conservatives." ~ John Stuart Mill, English Philosopher (1806 - 1873)

PS – Because of upcoming travel schedules, the next edition of this blog will be posted in mid-April.

Can we all agree that politics stink?

I stated in my original statement that I was not going to be political in this blog.  Yet here it is, the end of February, and I am already sick of the electioneering.  So, if I am able to parse my original language, rather than be political, I’m going to discuss politics.  In several of my recent blogs, I have discussed the vagaries of MACT and the support the American Boiler Manufacturers Association (ABMA) gives to the passage of this EPA legislation.  Just to clarify one point, the ABMA, as a group, is ideologically right of center.  I know this anecdotally having attended conferences over the years and listened to many political conversations.  The majority, I am positive, vote Republican.

So why is it that this right-leaning group stands so strongly behind their positions regarding passage of the MACT?  It is because their beliefs transcend political ideology to realize that not only are the ideas espoused in MACT are good ones but they are also eminently achievable with technology readily available and at a cost that is worth the price.  Yet, this bill has been mired recently in two different attempts to tamp it down: the first was when it was attached to the extension of the payroll tax deduction extension; the second is right now, when it has become part of the transportation bill.  I, along with several members of the ABMA individually as well as the organization as an entity, wrote letters to our Senators and Representatives urging them to back this legislation.  In my state of Oklahoma, I know this effort is in vain.  One of the US Senators, James M. Inhofe, has just published a book called “The Greatest Hoax” that states that global warming is a conspiracy that threatens our future.  Now I will not to pretend to be a scientist and my own personal beliefs on this issue don’t matter but I’m hardly going to subscribe to a Senator’s viewpoint who calls global warming (or climate change as some prefer) a hoax despite a great deal of evidence to the contrary.

Wow, did that feel good to say!  Our country sits here, eight months from a general election, and there is already a poisoned atmosphere.  And this is just on the Republican side of the page.  Obama, although clearly mentioned, is not yet the favored target; it’s other Republicans.  So when they finally choose their candidate, Romney or Santorum, I assume, we’ll then get ready for the main event.  I for one am quite sick of politics and eagerly await the end of this process in November.  Perhaps, depending upon the results of the election, they might actually sit down as elected officials and find some middle point to correct the ills of our country.

To finish, here’s a little blurb on politics.

“Under democracy one party always devotes its chief energies to trying to prove that the other party is unfit to rule - and both commonly succeed, and are right.”  ~H.L. Mencken, (1880-1956)

How much fuel can I save?

One of the first questions I am asked about heat recovery is whether or not the payback will warrant the installed cost of an economizer.  I'd like to say the answer is always an unqualified "yes", but things are never quite so simple.  Conditions such as hours of operation, average firing rates, government subsidies and utility cost-sharing all have an impact.  And then there's the cost of fuel.  While low energy costs - particularly those of natural gas - are a tremendous boost to our greater economy, they deflate the ROI of heat recovery products.  Even though natural gas prices are already depressed, the current trend line suggests they're going to be even lower in 2012. 

Yet despite all of the "bad" news, there is a relatively simple way to figure out how much fuel will be saved by adding certain types of heat recovery equipment.  With a boiler economizer, fuel savings range from 3-8%.  So by determining fuel costs for a boiler, you easily can calculate fuel savings.  The hotter the flue gas temperature, the higher the fuel savings is typically a good rule of thumb.

Finally, my thought for the day has to do with conserving energy.:

"We waste our lights in vain, like lamps by day" - William Shakespeare

Boiler MACT and other oddities

Finally, the holidays are over and the shows and meetings that for me occupy a good deal of time during December and January are done.  Now I can get back to a normal regimen for my blog.  In reviewing my earlier blog from January I went out on a very thin limb by making various predictions for 2012.  Under the “Sports” section, I guessed LSU over Alabama and Green Bay to win it all.  As all of you know from reading my blogs, these were obviously typos. 

I just returned from the annual ABMA meeting in Palm Springs, California.  For those of you living in a cold climate, I will not tell you how wonderful the weather was out there; stay away in the summer though!  At the conference was an economist who forecast a decent 2012 and 2013 so plan accordingly.  After a few sidesteps in 2014, we can expect growth during the period 2015-2017 with some slowing in 2018 and another steep recession in 2019.  I’ll leave each of you to mull over the merits of these ideas and plan accordingly.  I will say that the economist has a good record on these matters.

As I have discussed in previous newsletters and blogs, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s March 2011 ICI-BMACT rules continue to evolve and gel.  In the end of December these rules were published in the Federal Register.  Sorting out all the meandering paths taken by this legislation, the obstructions in Congress along with court challenges and rulings takes someone much more attuned to these nuanced efforts than a simple, non-political guy like me.  Suffice it to say that it appears things are moving forward.  There are two measures going through our dysfunctional government:  HR 2250 (http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/BILLS-112hr2250rh/pdf/BILLS-112hr2250rh.pdf),  a house bill designed to allow more time for review of the EPA proposal (it’s been going on for 10 years now so the extra time being requested fails the smell test here);

and S1392 (http://eenews.net/bills/111/Senate/180811105617.pdf, the Senate equivalent of the same odious bill. 

 The ABMA position on this is clear and forceful: it strongly opposes both of these bills and urges all the stakeholders in the process to get moving on getting the final rules codified and the relevant EPA rules moving forward. 

More on this as it develops.

Finally, after my “brilliance” in showing my prognosticating skills, here’s my quote for the day.

“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future.” ~Niels Bohr, Danish Physicist, 1885-1962.

Happy 2012

Happy New Year

Oh my.  Just look at the calendar!  I blinked and it is 2012.  When I was a boy of around 10, I remember thinking that when the millennium changed from 1999 to 2000 that I would be 53 years old.  Naturally, that seemed rather ancient to me at the time but I look back to 2000 fondly as I was “only” 53.  Alas.

With that bit of nostalgia out of the way, let me start my first blog by wishing everyone, including the Mayans who predict a 2012 catastrophe, Happy New Year!

Predictions for 2012

As with most companies, E-Tech must submit forecasts to its owners as to the business climate we expect to see for 2012.  A decade or two this was a simpler task as the world was a less complicated place.  Even though we are a small company, E-Tech has to look at the macro side of the world as the interrelationships of our little planet are so powerful in what we do.  So here is what I think is going to happen this year.  Note that these predictions are based on reasoning, not necessarily what I hope will occur.

1.       The Economy – This one’s easy as most analysis I have seen point to a continued improvement in the US economy in general and to other parts of the world in particular.  Are there blips out there?  Sure.  China will have to come to grips with many issues that endanger it including its banking system.  A consensus for US growth seems to be around 2.5%.

2.       Unemployment – Public sector losses will dampen employment so that by the time elections come around in November, the rate will not be much different than it is now.

3.       And speaking of the election… I predict Obama will be re-elected in a run against Mitt Romney.  Do not be surprised to see the president have a different VP.  In a move more toward a dysfunctional government, the GOP will capture the Senate thereby assuring that Congressional approval ratings remain in single digits.

4.       On a microeconomic level, specifically my own business, I predict 2012 to be a reasonable year though not as robust as 2011 was.  Most of E-Tech’s representatives share this view as well as customers who replied to our requests for their opinions.

5.       Inflation – Not too much of a factor.  For our own business, steel prices, at least for the time being, are stable or lower.  Natural gas prices by the end of the year figure to be $3.50 or so.  Take note, however, that the US is beginning to export large amounts of natural gas; though this is not probably going to have too much impact in 2012, we could see an upward blip in 2013 or 2014.  E-Tech is seeing increased pricing pressures due to scarce fabrication resources in the Tulsa area.  This could cause fabricated costs to rise with or without material price increases.

6.       The stock market – Oh boy, here we go!  I believe that long-term, the market is bearish as there are so many issues – debt, growth, political stagnation in the US, lack of a coordinated plan for adapting to a global market, education problems – that must (my word) be addressed at a macro level and won’t be.  With that caveat, I think 2012 and 2013 will be decent years with gains of 5% or so each year.  Beyond that, buyer beware!

7.       Sports – LSU over Alabama (I would have preferred to see Oklahoma State lose to one of these two but the BCS saw to that not happening).  And in the Super Bowl?  My money’s on Green Bay.

Finally, these are my own opinions and as anyone who knows me will say, I’m wrong far more often than right.  And to that end, you may all, at the end of the year, remind me of this fact – unless, of course, the Mayans were right after all.

For my first blog of 2012, it’s appropriate to have a New Year’s quote.

The proper behavior all through the holiday season is to be drunk.  This drunkenness culminates on New Year's Eve, when you get so drunk you kiss the person you're married to.  ~P.J. O'Rourke (born 1947)